Restricted Research - Award List, Note/Discussion Page
Fiscal Year: 2023
383 Sam Houston State University (142271)
Principal Investigator: Randle, Christopher P.
Total Amount of Contract, Award, or Gift (Annual before 2011): $ 57,828
Exceeds $250,000 (Is it flagged?): No
Start and End Dates: 8/1/22 - 7/31/23
Restricted Research: YES
Academic Discipline: Biology
Department, Center, School, or Institute: Department of Biology
Title of Contract, Award, or Gift: Distribution Modeling of Crop Pests
Name of Granting or Contracting Agency/Entity:
United States Department of Agriculture
CFDA Link: USDA
10.025
Program Title:
n/a
CFDA Linked: Plant and Animal Disease, Pest Control, and Animal Care
Note:
SAMs 1.1.1: The proposed work represents the third and final year in a project to predict potential distributions in the US of USDA-CAPS identified pests and pathogens of corn, cotton, grapes, small grains, and soybeans. In previous funding periods, we will have employed three ecological niche models and the mechanistic CLIMEX model to predict the distribution of these pests and pathogens given current climatic conditions. However, climatic conditions are far from static. Due to anthropogenic warming, we can expect drastic changes to important climatic metrics like surface mean temperature, precipitation, sea level and the frequency of extreme weather anomalies. If we hope to maintain food security, we will need to adapt to these measures. One of the primary tasks facing farmers is crop pest management. Climate change will likely result in rapid expansions and shifts in pest distributions, forcing farmers to adopt new pest management practices. Techniques for predicting habitat suitability for invasive pests that we have used under current climate conditions can also be used to predict future distributions when combined with climate change models. In this study, we propose to extend established prediction and threat assessment approaches of the first two years of the project to predict pest and pathogen distributions under a range of climate change models for the year 2072 (50 years from initiation of funding). This will allow us to 1) categorize the expected change in distribution for each pest or pathogen as expanding, contracting, or shifting, 2) identify areas of the US that should see the greatest turnover in pest or pathogen distributions, 3) quantify change in pest and pathogen habitat suitability for the entire United States at a fine scale.
Discussion: No discussion notes