Restricted Research - Award List, Note/Discussion Page
Fiscal Year: 2023
1563 The University of Texas at Arlington (143451)
Principal Investigator: Yu Zhang,yu.zhang@uta.edu,(817) 272-5055
Total Amount of Contract, Award, or Gift (Annual before 2011): $ 200,000
Exceeds $250,000 (Is it flagged?): No
Start and End Dates: 6/26/23 - 8/31/25
Restricted Research: YES
Academic Discipline: Department of Civil Engineering
Department, Center, School, or Institute: none
Title of Contract, Award, or Gift: Improving the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service model of the Little River Basin to facilitate assessment of Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation
Name of Granting or Contracting Agency/Entity:
Texas Water Development Board
Program Title: none
Note:
(SAM Category 1.1.1.) The National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) has been implementing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) for its service domain. The University of Texas at Arlington (UTA), Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and WGRFC partnered with the Army Corps of Engineers Fort Worth District (FWD) and Brazos River Authority to establish a Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operation (FIRO) pilot within the Brazos River Basin to determine the utility of HEFS in guiding operation of FWD multiuse reservoirs. Preliminary investigation conducted by UTA and WGRFC has underlined limitations of the HEFS and reservoir model configurations that require calibration, tuning, and enhancements to optimize forecast skills at different lead times. The proposed work, to be conducted by UTA Principal Investigator Dr. Yu Zhang, will focus on mitigating biases in the current HEFS forecasts for the Little River System (LRS) through improving the water balance and reservoir modules in the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). It will also include a detailed analysis of biases in the forecast of heavy precipitation amounts in both raw and postprocessed ensemble forecasts, and an experimental application of the conditional bias penalization regression developed at UTA to rederive the HEFS Meteorological Ensemble Forcing Processor (MEFP) parameters. The project will employ the GEFSv12 precipitation reforecasts.
Discussion: No discussion notes