Restricted Research - Award List, Note/Discussion Page
Fiscal Year: 2023
2001 The University of Texas at El Paso (143889)
Principal Investigator: Bouchnita,Anass
Total Amount of Contract, Award, or Gift (Annual before 2011): $ 16,908
Exceeds $250,000 (Is it flagged?): No
Start and End Dates: 10/3/22 - 6/30/23
Restricted Research: YES
Academic Discipline: Mathematical Sciences
Department, Center, School, or Institute: Mathematical Sciences
Title of Contract, Award, or Gift: Predicting seasonal influenza hospitalizations using semi-mechanistic models that incorporate immunological dynamics
Name of Granting or Contracting Agency/Entity:
UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA
CFDA: 93.421
Program Title: Strengthening Public Health Systems and Services through National Partnerships to Improve and Protect the Nation’s Health
Note:
To support CDC and CSTE decision making during the 2022-2023 influenza season, we propose to adapt validated COVID-19 forecast and scenario projection models to (1) produce probabilistic influenza seasonal epidemic forecasts, (2) make long-term influenza burden scenario projections, and (3) broadly contribute to influenza forecasting and scenario modeling hub efforts across the CSTE and CDC Network. The proposal aims to achieve the following goals: 1- Apply a semi-mechanistic machine learning forecast model validated on historic COVID-19 data to make probabilistic forecasts of influenza incident hospitalizations at the state and national scale. 2- Produce scenario projections for seasonal influenza epidemics using a model that tracks vaccine-acquired and infection-acquired immunity. 3- Promote collaborative engagement within the CDC and CSTE Influenza Forecasting Network.
Discussion: No discussion notes